Ottawa Senators at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Shane PintoPoints1
KrakenScoring summary
- P34:18Tim Stützle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (4), Claude Giroux (13)3–0
- P212:45Noah Gregor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (6), Zack Ostapchuk (3)2–0
- P28:02Shane Pinto Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:02Shane Pinto Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (7)OTT 1 – 0 SEA · OTT 54% → 72% +19OTT 54% → 72%+19 pts
- P212:45Noah Gregor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (6), Zack Ostapchuk (3)OTT 2 – 0 SEA · OTT 74% → 88% +14OTT 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P34:18Tim Stützle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (4), Claude Giroux (13)OTT 3 – 0 SEA · OTT 93% → 99% +5OTT 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML OTT -135 / SEA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +11 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 48.5%24th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–8 | Road vs home | 8–919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–18 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.