Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Travis HamonicAssists1
- Nick CousinsPoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists2
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (27), Linus Ullmark (1)3–2
- P37:16Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Matt Coronato (8), Connor Zary (11)2–2
- P36:24Ridly Greig Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P119:00Nick Cousins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (16), Travis Hamonic (2)1–1
- P112:14Blake Coleman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (11), Matt Coronato (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:14Blake Coleman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (11), Matt Coronato (7)OTT 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 45% → 61% +16CGY 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P119:00Nick Cousins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (16), Travis Hamonic (2)OTT 1 – 1 CGY · OTT 37% → 54% +17OTT 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P36:24Ridly Greig Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 1 CGY · OTT 53% → 80% +27OTT 53% → 80%+27 pts
- P37:16Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Matt Coronato (8), Connor Zary (11)OTT 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 20% → 48% +28CGY 20% → 48%+28 pts
- OT0:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (27), Linus Ullmark (1)OTT 3 – 2 CGY · OTT 51% → 92% +41OTT 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML OTT -135 / CGY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 51.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −11 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +8 Elo | OTT 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 20th of 326–8 | Road vs home | 11–68th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–18 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–1 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.