San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Jan RuttaGoals1
- Timothy LiljegrenAssists1
- Jan RuttaPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (33), Evan Bouchard (19)2–3
- P319:42Mattias Ekholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (5), Connor McDavid (32)2–2
- P18:21Jan Rutta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (20), Macklin Celebrini (12)2–1
- P17:07Zach Hyman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (31), Evan Bouchard (18)1–1
- P13:23Luke Kunin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (9), Timothy Liljegren (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:23Luke Kunin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (9), Timothy Liljegren (4)SJ 1 – 0 EDM · SJ 22% → 35% +13SJ 22% → 35%+13 pts
- P17:07Zach Hyman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (31), Evan Bouchard (18)SJ 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 63% → 77% +13EDM 63% → 77%+13 pts
- P18:21Jan Rutta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (20), Macklin Celebrini (12)SJ 2 – 1 EDM · SJ 23% → 37% +14SJ 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P319:42Mattias Ekholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (5), Connor McDavid (32)SJ 2 – 2 EDM · EDM <1% → 52% +52EDM <1% → 52%+52 pts
- OT0:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (33), Evan Bouchard (19)SJ 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 59% → 94% +35EDM 59% → 94%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 78%
- ML SJ +340 / EDM -450
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 73.5%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -360
- SJ +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 4.1 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +22 | +5 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.56 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +177 Elo | EDM 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 77.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 54.9%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 30th of 325–14 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–12 | 12–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 23–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.