Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:47Adam Lowry Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (6), Mason Appleton (9)4–3
- P311:56Kyle Connor Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (14), Mark Scheifele (20)3–3
- P34:44Fabian Zetterlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (19)2–3
- P217:11Macklin Celebrini Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (18), Tyler Toffoli (9)2–2
- P27:28Mark Scheifele Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Gabriel Vilardi (13)2–1
- P21:52Tyler Toffoli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (9), Macklin Celebrini (11)1–1
- P112:18Kyle Connor Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (19), Gabriel Vilardi (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:28Mark Scheifele Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Gabriel Vilardi (13)WPG 2 – 1 SJ · WPG 63% → 79% +17WPG 63% → 79%+17 pts
- P217:11Macklin Celebrini Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (18), Tyler Toffoli (9)WPG 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 20% → 39% +20SJ 20% → 39%+20 pts
- P34:44Fabian Zetterlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (19)WPG 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 41% → 69% +28SJ 41% → 69%+28 pts
- P311:56Kyle Connor Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (14), Mark Scheifele (20)WPG 3 – 3 SJ · WPG 20% → 56% +36WPG 20% → 56%+36 pts
- P318:47Adam Lowry Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (6), Mason Appleton (9)WPG 4 – 3 SJ · WPG 52% → >99% +47WPG 52% → >99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 67%
- ML WPG -225 / SJ +190
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 66.6%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- WPG -201
- SJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.2 – 2.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +120 Elo | WPG 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 45.7%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 5th of 3211–6 | Road vs home | 6–823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–15 | 22–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–10 | — |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 22–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.