Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Joel KivirantaGoals2
- Logan O'ConnorAssists1
- Joel KivirantaPoints2
Sharks- Carl GrundstromGoals1
- Jan RuttaAssists1
- Carl GrundstromPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:58Joel Kiviranta Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (6), Casey Mittelstadt (16)4–2
- P313:06Joel Kiviranta Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (4)3–2
- P38:26Mikko Rantanen Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (39), Cale Makar (31)2–2
- P29:29William Eklund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (8), Luke Kunin (6)1–2
- P24:26Carl Grundstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (4), Luke Kunin (5)1–1
- P13:40Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (30), Nathan MacKinnon (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:40Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (30), Nathan MacKinnon (38)COL 1 – 0 SJ · COL 69% → 81% +12COL 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P24:26Carl Grundstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (4), Luke Kunin (5)COL 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 19% → 35% +15SJ 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P29:29William Eklund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (8), Luke Kunin (6)COL 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 36% → 56% +20SJ 36% → 56%+20 pts
- P38:26Mikko Rantanen Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (39), Cale Makar (31)COL 2 – 2 SJ · COL 27% → 59% +32COL 27% → 59%+32 pts
- P313:06Joel Kiviranta Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (4)COL 3 – 2 SJ · COL 57% → 89% +33COL 57% → 89%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 69%
- ML COL -260 / SJ +215
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- COL: Elo 61.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -227
- SJ +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +3 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +80 Elo | COL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 45.9%29th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 7th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–23 | 23–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | — |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–0 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.