Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals3
- Gabriel VilardiAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints4
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Jake McCabeAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:39Mark Scheifele Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (26)5–2
- P313:42John Tavares Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (9), William Nylander (17)4–2
- P311:57Mark Scheifele Goal (20) Poke, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (17), Josh Morrissey (30)4–1
- P33:27Mark Scheifele Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (16), Kyle Connor (25)3–1
- P25:25John Tavares Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (36), William Nylander (16)2–1
- P21:16Kyle Connor Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (21)2–0
- P116:04Kyle Connor Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (15), Josh Morrissey (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:04Kyle Connor Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (15), Josh Morrissey (29)WPG 1 – 0 TOR · WPG 47% → 64% +17WPG 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P21:16Kyle Connor Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (21)WPG 2 – 0 TOR · WPG 65% → 80% +15WPG 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P25:25John Tavares Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (36), William Nylander (16)WPG 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 18% → 34% +15TOR 18% → 34%+15 pts
- P33:27Mark Scheifele Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (16), Kyle Connor (25)WPG 3 – 1 TOR · WPG 74% → 91% +17WPG 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P311:57Mark Scheifele Goal (20) Poke, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (17), Josh Morrissey (30)WPG 4 – 1 TOR · WPG 98% → >99% +2WPG 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML WPG +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- WPG +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −10 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +15 Elo | WPG 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 49.7%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 91.6%2nd of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 6th of 3212–7 | Road vs home | 14–56th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–17 | 19–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–12 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 0–3 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.