Winnipeg Jets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals2
- Radko GudasAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:34Troy Terry Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (8)2–3
- P315:14Frank Vatrano Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Radko Gudas (5)2–2
- P34:13Mark Scheifele Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (23)2–1
- P210:24Gabriel Vilardi Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (17), Kyle Connor (22)1–1
- P24:45Frank Vatrano Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (4), Ryan Strome (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:45Frank Vatrano Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (4), Ryan Strome (11)WPG 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 44% → 63% +19ANA 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P210:24Gabriel Vilardi Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (17), Kyle Connor (22)WPG 1 – 1 ANA · WPG 35% → 56% +20WPG 35% → 56%+20 pts
- P34:13Mark Scheifele Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (23)WPG 2 – 1 ANA · WPG 54% → 79% +25WPG 54% → 79%+25 pts
- P315:14Frank Vatrano Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Radko Gudas (5)WPG 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 9% → 48% +39ANA 9% → 48%+39 pts
- P319:34Troy Terry Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (8)WPG 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 49% → >99% +51ANA 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML WPG -150 / ANA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 54.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -138
- ANA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −27 | +10 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.68 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +30 Elo | WPG 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.431st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.728th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 45.5%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 5th of 3212–6 | Road vs home | 5–1031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–16 | 20–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18 | 9–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–0 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.