New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Bobby McMannGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Bobby McMannPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:40
Mathew Barzal Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (14)6–3 - P313:49Bobby McMann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (35), Jake McCabe (8)5–3
- P310:36Noah Dobson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (12), Bo Horvat (16)5–2
- P35:23Isaiah George Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (2), Scott Mayfield (5)4–2
- P25:43William Nylander Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (4), Matthew Knies (8)3–2
- P116:08Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (13), Alexander Romanov (4)3–1
- P112:29William Nylander Goal (22) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (17), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (11)2–1
- P14:48Bo Horvat Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (3)2–0
- P11:47Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (15), Simon Holmstrom (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:47Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (15), Simon Holmstrom (11)NYI 1 – 0 TOR · NYI 44% → 59% +15NYI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P112:29William Nylander Goal (22) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (17), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (11)NYI 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 25% → 39% +15TOR 25% → 39%+15 pts
- P116:08Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (13), Alexander Romanov (4)NYI 3 – 1 TOR · NYI 62% → 76% +15NYI 62% → 76%+15 pts
- P25:43William Nylander Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: David Kampf (4), Matthew Knies (8)NYI 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 20% → 36% +16TOR 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P35:23Isaiah George Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (2), Scott Mayfield (5)NYI 4 – 2 TOR · NYI 75% → 92% +17NYI 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML NYI +120 / TOR -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- NYI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −7 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 326–12 | Road vs home | 14–42nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–20 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–15 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–0 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.