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New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

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Away

Islanders

12-14-7

0–4

at

Home

Hurricanes

20-10-1

NYI 33%CAR 67%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.

CAR favored NYI favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3CAR50%NYI

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Islanders

    Scoring summary

    • P219:44Sebastian Aho Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (10), Jaccob Slavin (8)0–4
    • P211:13Tyson Jost Goal (2) Batted, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (21), Jack Roslovic (5)0–3
    • P18:21Jordan Martinook Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (9)0–2
    • P15:47Andrei Svechnikov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (24), Shayne Gostisbehere (20)0–1

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P15:47Andrei Svechnikov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (24), Shayne Gostisbehere (20)NYI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 66% → 79% +13
    2. P18:21Jordan Martinook Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (9)NYI 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 79% → 89% +9
    3. P211:13Tyson Jost Goal (2) Batted, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (21), Jack Roslovic (5)NYI 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 91% → 97% +6
    4. P219:44Sebastian Aho Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (10), Jaccob Slavin (8)NYI 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 98% → >99% +1

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Hurricanes 67%

    SolidHit
    NYI 33%CAR 67%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

    Market
    CAR 67%
    ML NYI +195 / CAR -230
    Pre-line forecast
    CAR 68%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CAR 69%
    Ratings vs. market
    +1.3 pts
    CAR: Elo 68.5%, market 67.3%
    Fair odds
    CAR -206
    NYI +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    NYI 2.2 – 3.3 CAR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorNYICARWhy
    Team rating14661558Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−2+7NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCAR +135 EloCAR 68.5%
    Market-implied ratingsCAR 68.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCAR 68.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCAR 67.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
    NYIStatCAR
    26th of 322.7Goals scored3.64th of 32
    18th of 323.1Goals allowed2.98th of 32
    21st of 32−0.4Margin+0.76th of 32
    18th of 3249.6%Shot share56.1%1st of 32
    13th of 3290.3%Save percentage89.2%24th of 32
    22nd of 324–6Last 105–516th of 32
    25th of 326–11Road vs home12–45th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    IslandersHurricanes
    140014501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonNYICAR
    Puck line13–1916–14
    Last 104–63–7
    Favorite2–1515–13
    Underdog11–41–1
    Overs–unders19–1312–18
    Overs–unders, last 107–35–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    NYI 4–6 CAR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.