New York Islanders at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Ryan PulockGoals1
- Pierre EngvallAssists1
- Ryan PulockPoints1
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Alex VlasicAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:49Connor Murphy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P319:06Connor Bedard Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (7)3–4
- P30:47Noah Dobson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (10), Maxim Tsyplakov (12)3–3
- P215:19Teuvo Teravainen Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (19), Alex Vlasic (14)2–3
- P22:25Simon Holmstrom Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Pierre Engvall (4), Kyle MacLean (3)2–2
- P119:40Taylor Hall Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (9), Alex Vlasic (13)1–2
- P118:43Ryan Pulock Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:08Ilya Mikheyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (8), Nolan Allan (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:40Taylor Hall Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (9), Alex Vlasic (13)NYI 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 38% → 56% +18CHI 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P22:25Simon Holmstrom Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Pierre Engvall (4), Kyle MacLean (3)NYI 2 – 2 CHI · NYI 43% → 61% +18NYI 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P215:19Teuvo Teravainen Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (19), Alex Vlasic (14)NYI 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 41% → 63% +22CHI 41% → 63%+22 pts
- P30:47Noah Dobson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (10), Maxim Tsyplakov (12)NYI 3 – 3 CHI · NYI 33% → 58% +25NYI 33% → 58%+25 pts
- P319:06Connor Bedard Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (7)NYI 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 48% → >99% +52CHI 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 64%
- ML NYI -200 / CHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 59.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.2 – 2.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −12 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +69 Elo | NYI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.431st of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 46.2%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 25th of 326–10 | Road vs home | 4–829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–18 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–14 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 10–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.