Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals1
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Cole PerfettiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P37:36Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (21), Cole Perfetti (16)0–5
- P32:07Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none0–4
- P25:19Neal Pionk Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (15), Nino Niederreiter (9)0–3
- P117:54Morgan Barron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (7), Adam Lowry (12)0–2
- P16:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (24), Josh Morrissey (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (24), Josh Morrissey (28)MIN 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 59% → 73% +14WPG 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P117:54Morgan Barron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (7), Adam Lowry (12)MIN 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 74% → 86% +12WPG 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P25:19Neal Pionk Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (15), Nino Niederreiter (9)MIN 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 88% → 95% +7WPG 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P32:07Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 98% → >99% +1WPG 98% → >99%+1 pts
- P37:36Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (21), Cole Perfetti (16)MIN 0 – 5 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 60%
- ML MIN +140 / WPG -165
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 66.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -149
- MIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +9 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +116 Elo | WPG 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 66.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.61st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 92.0%1st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3212–5 | Road vs home | 11–46th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–16 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–6 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.