Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aaron EkbladGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists2
- Aaron EkbladPoints3
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:30Eetu Luostarinen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (9)6–1
- P311:10Niko Mikkola Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (14), Sam Reinhart (22)5–1
- P218:54Matthew Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (18), Aaron Ekblad (16)4–1
- P215:28Matthew Tkachuk Goal (12) Poke, assists: Aleksander Barkov (21), Carter Verhaeghe (17)3–1
- P118:14Mackie Samoskevich Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (15)2–1
- P116:11Marco Rossi Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (26), Matt Boldy (17)1–1
- P13:48Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (6), Mackie Samoskevich (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:48Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (6), Mackie Samoskevich (5)FLA 1 – 0 MIN · FLA 58% → 72% +14FLA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P116:11Marco Rossi Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (26), Matt Boldy (17)FLA 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 27% → 43% +16MIN 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P118:14Mackie Samoskevich Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (15)FLA 2 – 1 MIN · FLA 57% → 73% +16FLA 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P215:28Matthew Tkachuk Goal (12) Poke, assists: Aleksander Barkov (21), Carter Verhaeghe (17)FLA 3 – 1 MIN · FLA 76% → 90% +14FLA 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P218:54Matthew Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (18), Aaron Ekblad (16)FLA 4 – 1 MIN · FLA 91% → 98% +6FLA 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML FLA -150 / MIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 52.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −12 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +15 Elo | FLA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 49.8%15th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–16 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.