Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Victor OlofssonGoals2
- William KarlssonAssists1
- Victor OlofssonPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:49Victor Olofsson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: William Karlsson (8), Pavel Dorofeyev (6)3–2
- P216:56Kirill Kaprizov Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (14), Mats Zuccarello (11)2–2
- P26:04Shea Theodore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (33), Mark Stone (18)2–1
- P19:31Victor Olofsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (22), Jack Eichel (32)1–1
- P11:30Kirill Kaprizov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:30Kirill Kaprizov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (10)VGK 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 48% → 62% +15MIN 48% → 62%+15 pts
- P19:31Victor Olofsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (22), Jack Eichel (32)VGK 1 – 1 MIN · VGK 36% → 52% +16VGK 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P26:04Shea Theodore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (33), Mark Stone (18)VGK 2 – 1 MIN · VGK 52% → 70% +18VGK 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P216:56Kirill Kaprizov Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (14), Mats Zuccarello (11)VGK 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 27% → 49% +22MIN 27% → 49%+22 pts
- P33:49Victor Olofsson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: William Karlsson (8), Pavel Dorofeyev (6)VGK 3 – 2 MIN · VGK 51% → 77% +26VGK 51% → 77%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 52%
- ML VGK -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 45.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 2.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MIN and VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −3 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +34 Elo | MIN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 21st of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 12th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 8–58th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–13 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.