Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (7), Jonas Brodin (7)1–4
- P314:18Travis Sanheim Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (8), Garnet Hathaway (8)1–3
- P39:34Marco Rossi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (9), Declan Chisholm (6)0–3
- P215:21Matt Boldy Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (13)0–2
- P114:18Kirill Kaprizov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (3), Zach Bogosian (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:18Kirill Kaprizov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (3), Zach Bogosian (4)PHI 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 57% → 72% +15MIN 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P215:21Matt Boldy Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (13)PHI 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 76% → 90% +14MIN 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P39:34Marco Rossi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (9), Declan Chisholm (6)PHI 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 97% → >99% +3MIN 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P314:18Travis Sanheim Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (8), Garnet Hathaway (8)PHI 1 – 3 MIN · PHI <1% → <1% +1PHI <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P317:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (7), Jonas Brodin (7)PHI 1 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML PHI +130 / MIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −17 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +58 Elo | MIN 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 13th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 7–59th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–14 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.