Utah Hockey Club at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Jack McBainAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:01Dylan Guenther Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (16), Clayton Keller (20)2–1
- P111:20Dylan Guenther Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Jack McBain (5), Logan Cooley (22)1–1
- P110:20Mats Zuccarello Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (27), Marco Rossi (15)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:20Mats Zuccarello Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (27), Marco Rossi (15)UTAH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 53% → 68% +15MIN 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P111:20Dylan Guenther Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Jack McBain (5), Logan Cooley (22)UTAH 1 – 1 MIN · UTAH 32% → 47% +15UTAH 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P310:01Dylan Guenther Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (16), Clayton Keller (20)UTAH 2 – 1 MIN · UTAH 49% → 81% +32UTAH 49% → 81%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML UTAH +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −14 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.2% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.4%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 9th of 3210–8 | Road vs home | 8–714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–13 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.