Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:46Gabriel Vilardi Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (29), Nikolaj Ehlers (21)0–3
- P313:44Gabriel Vilardi Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (20), Kyle Connor (28)0–2
- P217:18Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (2), Logan Stanley (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:18Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (2), Logan Stanley (5)NSH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 53% → 75% +22WPG 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P313:44Gabriel Vilardi Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (20), Kyle Connor (28)NSH 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 88% → 99% +11WPG 88% → 99%+11 pts
- P314:46Gabriel Vilardi Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (29), Nikolaj Ehlers (21)NSH 0 – 3 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +1WPG >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML NSH +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 68.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +9 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +131 Elo | WPG 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323–15 | Road vs home | 13–44th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–20 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 15–12 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–23 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–2 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.