New York Rangers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:59Adam Wilsby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (10), Filip Forsberg (13)0–2
- P113:37Jonathan Marchessault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (9), Filip Forsberg (12)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:37Jonathan Marchessault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (9), Filip Forsberg (12)NYR 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 55% → 71% +16NSH 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P311:59Adam Wilsby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (10), Filip Forsberg (13)NYR 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 85% → 98% +13NSH 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 56%
- ML NYR +120 / NSH -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- NSH: Elo 49.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -128
- NYR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +6 Elo | NYR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.932nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 8th of 328–6 | Road vs home | 5–928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–20 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 10–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.