Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints4
Predators- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:07Bryan Rust Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (20), Kris Letang (9)5–4
- P311:36Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (16), Sidney Crosby (26)4–4
- P37:44Brady Skjei Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (11), Zachary L'Heureux (5)3–4
- P29:08Rickard Rakell Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Sidney Crosby (25), Bryan Rust (11)3–3
- P27:54Sidney Crosby Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (19), Bryan Rust (10)2–3
- P23:38Steven Stamkos Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (15), Gustav Nyquist (6)1–3
- P117:57Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (3), Brady Skjei (8)1–2
- P116:21Bryan Rust Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (11), Sidney Crosby (24)1–1
- P13:51Jonathan Marchessault Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (14), Luke Schenn (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:57Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (3), Brady Skjei (8)PIT 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 57% → 73% +16NSH 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P29:08Rickard Rakell Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Sidney Crosby (25), Bryan Rust (11)PIT 3 – 3 NSH · PIT 26% → 44% +19PIT 26% → 44%+19 pts
- P37:44Brady Skjei Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (11), Zachary L'Heureux (5)PIT 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 54% → 82% +28NSH 54% → 82%+28 pts
- P311:36Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (16), Sidney Crosby (26)PIT 4 – 4 NSH · PIT 15% → 47% +32PIT 15% → 47%+32 pts
- OT1:07Bryan Rust Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (20), Kris Letang (9)PIT 5 – 4 NSH · PIT 48% → 92% +44PIT 48% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 58%
- ML PIT +130 / NSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -138
- PIT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.5 – 3.0 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +35 Elo | NSH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 25th of 325–10 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–17 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–15 | 10–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.