Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex TurcotteGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints2
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:44Rickard Rakell Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (18), Michael Bunting (9)2–3
- P314:25Matt Grzelcyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (23), Rickard Rakell (10)2–2
- P211:38Alex Turcotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (11), Jordan Spence (6)2–1
- P26:22Evgeni Malkin Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (8), Bryan Rust (9)1–1
- P10:33Adrian Kempe Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (27), Vladislav Gavrikov (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:33Adrian Kempe Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (27), Vladislav Gavrikov (10)LA 1 – 0 PIT · LA 58% → 71% +14LA 58% → 71%+14 pts
- P26:22Evgeni Malkin Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (8), Bryan Rust (9)LA 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 26% → 44% +18PIT 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P211:38Alex Turcotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (11), Jordan Spence (6)LA 2 – 1 PIT · LA 56% → 75% +19LA 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P314:25Matt Grzelcyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (23), Rickard Rakell (10)LA 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 10% → 48% +37PIT 10% → 48%+37 pts
- OT1:44Rickard Rakell Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (18), Michael Bunting (9)LA 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 48% → 94% +45PIT 48% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML LA -150 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- LA: Elo 50.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -138
- PIT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −1 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +5 Elo | LA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 48.1%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.9%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 15th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 8–917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–14 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 11–19 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.