Los Angeles Kings at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints1
Predators- Nick BlankenburgGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:03Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (17)2–3
- P313:23Alex Laferriere Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (14), Joel Edmundson (6)2–2
- P39:24Quinton Byfield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (9), Vladislav Gavrikov (14)1–2
- P214:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (17), Filip Forsberg (16)0–2
- P114:16Zachary L'Heureux Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (7), Ryan O'Reilly (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:16Zachary L'Heureux Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (7), Ryan O'Reilly (12)LA 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 50% → 66% +16NSH 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P214:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (17), Filip Forsberg (16)LA 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 71% → 87% +16NSH 71% → 87%+16 pts
- P39:24Quinton Byfield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (9), Vladislav Gavrikov (14)LA 1 – 2 NSH · LA 4% → 19% +15LA 4% → 19%+15 pts
- P313:23Alex Laferriere Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (14), Joel Edmundson (6)LA 2 – 2 NSH · LA 14% → 50% +36LA 14% → 50%+36 pts
- OT1:03Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (17)LA 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 50% → 92% +42NSH 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 50%
- ML LA -110 / NSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 48.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -100
- LA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +11 Elo | LA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 13th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 6–1028th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–15 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20 | 11–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–2 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.