Los Angeles Kings at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals2
- Jordan SpenceAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals2
- Tyson FoersterAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:34Kevin Fiala Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (12), Brandt Clarke (15)7–3
- P316:23Quinton Byfield Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P310:39Anze Kopitar Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (9), Vladislav Gavrikov (13)5–3
- P31:54Warren Foegele Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (8), Jacob Moverare (1)4–3
- P219:16Anze Kopitar Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (12)3–3
- P215:04Tyson Foerster Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (9), Owen Tippett (8)2–3
- P211:30Tyson Foerster Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (9)2–2
- P21:31Tanner Jeannot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (8), Jordan Spence (7)2–1
- P114:11Noah Cates Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Bobby Brink (10), Tyson Foerster (6)1–1
- P110:53Kevin Fiala Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:31Tanner Jeannot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (8), Jordan Spence (7)LA 2 – 1 PHI · LA 58% → 74% +16LA 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P211:30Tyson Foerster Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (9)LA 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 24% → 43% +19PHI 24% → 43%+19 pts
- P215:04Tyson Foerster Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (9), Owen Tippett (8)LA 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 44% → 66% +22PHI 44% → 66%+22 pts
- P219:16Anze Kopitar Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (12)LA 3 – 3 PHI · LA 32% → 56% +24LA 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P31:54Warren Foegele Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (8), Jacob Moverare (1)LA 4 – 3 PHI · LA 55% → 79% +23LA 55% → 79%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 60%
- ML LA -165 / PHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LA: Elo 54.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -149
- PHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +11 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +34 Elo | LA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 49.9%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.3%31st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 18th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–15 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–20 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.