Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Sean CouturierPoints2
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:48Lucas Raymond Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (14)4–6
- P37:22Patrick Kane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (13)4–5
- P35:39Owen Tippett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (8), Jamie Drysdale (4)4–4
- P33:50Ryan Poehling Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Sean Couturier (11), Travis Sanheim (14)3–4
- P217:27Joe Veleno Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (3)2–4
- P216:05Michael Rasmussen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (12)2–3
- P210:40Noah Cates Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (5), Nick Seeler (9)2–2
- P210:15Alex DeBrincat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (9)1–2
- P118:19J.T. Compher Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Larkin (13), Lucas Raymond (20)1–1
- P11:06Travis Konecny Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (8), Sean Couturier (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:15Alex DeBrincat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (9)PHI 1 – 2 DET · DET 49% → 69% +20DET 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P210:40Noah Cates Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (5), Nick Seeler (9)PHI 2 – 2 DET · PHI 31% → 51% +20PHI 31% → 51%+20 pts
- P216:05Michael Rasmussen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (12)PHI 2 – 3 DET · DET 49% → 71% +22DET 49% → 71%+22 pts
- P35:39Owen Tippett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (8), Jamie Drysdale (4)PHI 4 – 4 DET · PHI 23% → 51% +27PHI 23% → 51%+27 pts
- P37:22Patrick Kane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (13)PHI 4 – 5 DET · DET 50% → 78% +29DET 50% → 78%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 43.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 2.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +5 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +49 Elo | DET 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.525th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 44.6%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 16th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–15 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.