Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:48Jonathan Marchessault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (20)2–5
- P35:17Sebastian Aho Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (12), Jack Roslovic (6)2–4
- P34:37Jordan Staal Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (9), William Carrier (5)1–4
- P32:52Mark Jankowski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (1)0–4
- P30:30Ryan O'Reilly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (19), Jonathan Marchessault (12)0–3
- P211:45Jonathan Marchessault Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (4), Luke Evangelista (10)0–2
- P113:34Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:34Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (18)CAR 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 47% → 63% +16NSH 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P211:45Jonathan Marchessault Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (4), Luke Evangelista (10)CAR 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 68% → 84% +16NSH 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P30:30Ryan O'Reilly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (19), Jonathan Marchessault (12)CAR 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 89% → 97% +8NSH 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P32:52Mark Jankowski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (1)CAR 0 – 4 NSH · NSH 98% → >99% +2NSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P35:17Sebastian Aho Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (12), Jack Roslovic (6)CAR 2 – 4 NSH · CAR 1% → 8% +6CAR 1% → 8%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 53%
- ML CAR -125 / NSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.8 – 2.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | CAR: Dustin Tokarski: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +45 Elo | CAR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.8% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 13th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 7–1023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–15 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–14 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 11–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.