Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Matt RoyAssists1
- Connor McMichaelPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:22Seth Jarvis Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (25), Brent Burns (7)1–3
- P219:33Connor McMichael Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (7), Pierre-Luc Dubois (18)0–3
- P216:11Jakub Vrana Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (7), Taylor Raddysh (11)0–2
- P119:17Aliaksei Protas Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (5), Matt Roy (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:17Aliaksei Protas Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (5), Matt Roy (7)CAR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 43% → 60% +18WSH 43% → 60%+18 pts
- P216:11Jakub Vrana Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (7), Taylor Raddysh (11)CAR 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 67% → 85% +18WSH 67% → 85%+18 pts
- P219:33Connor McMichael Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (7), Pierre-Luc Dubois (18)CAR 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 87% → 96% +9WSH 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P310:22Seth Jarvis Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (25), Brent Burns (7)CAR 1 – 3 WSH · CAR <1% → 4% +4CAR <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 59%
- ML CAR -155 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 2.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −4 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +7 Elo | CAR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.8% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 13th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 9–69th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–14 | 20–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.