Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Andrew MangiapanePoints1
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:42Ryan Donato Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (11), Teuvo Teravainen (12)2–3
- P314:07TJ Brodie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (5), Teuvo Teravainen (11)2–2
- P30:51Ilya Mikheyev Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (10)2–1
- P113:18Andrew Mangiapane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (7), Jakub Vrana (4)2–0
- P14:16Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:16Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 0 CHI · WSH 64% → 77% +13WSH 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P113:18Andrew Mangiapane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (7), Jakub Vrana (4)WSH 2 – 0 CHI · WSH 77% → 88% +11WSH 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P30:51Ilya Mikheyev Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (10)WSH 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 7% → 20% +13CHI 7% → 20%+13 pts
- P314:07TJ Brodie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (5), Teuvo Teravainen (11)WSH 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 10% → 45% +35CHI 10% → 45%+35 pts
- P317:42Ryan Donato Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (11), Teuvo Teravainen (12)WSH 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 47% → 96% +49CHI 47% → 96%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 64%
- ML WSH -200 / CHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 60.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 2.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −10 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +73 Elo | WSH 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.728th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212–3 | Road vs home | 5–828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–10 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 11–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.