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Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

FinalNHL Net, FanDuel SN South, MSG

Away

Hurricanes

21-11-1

3–1

at

Home

Rangers

16-16-1

CAR 57%NYR 43%

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Madison Square Garden · NHL Net, FanDuel SN South, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.

NYR favored CAR favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3NYR50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Rangers

Scoring summary

  • P318:18Sebastian Aho Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (14), Pyotr Kochetkov (3)3–1
  • P214:32Jack Roslovic Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (13), Pyotr Kochetkov (2)2–1
  • P29:14William Carrier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (9), Jordan Staal (10)1–1
  • P10:17Jimmy Vesey Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Chad Ruhwedel (1), Adam Edstrom (2)0–1

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:17Jimmy Vesey Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Chad Ruhwedel (1), Adam Edstrom (2)CAR 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 43% → 57% +15
  2. P29:14William Carrier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (9), Jordan Staal (10)CAR 1 – 1 NYR · CAR 35% → 55% +20
  3. P214:32Jack Roslovic Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (13), Pyotr Kochetkov (2)CAR 2 – 1 NYR · CAR 55% → 75% +20
  4. P318:18Sebastian Aho Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (14), Pyotr Kochetkov (3)CAR 3 – 1 NYR · CAR 99% → >99% +1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 57%

LeanHit
CAR 57%NYR 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
CAR 57%
ML CAR -145 / NYR +125
Pre-line forecast
CAR 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 51%
Ratings vs. market
−5.9 pts
CAR: Elo 51.2%, market 57.1%
Fair odds
CAR -133
NYR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 3.0 – 2.5 NYR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARNYRWhy
Team rating15571524Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+7−2CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +9 EloCAR 51.2%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 56.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 55.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 57.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatNYR
6th of 323.5Goals scored3.019th of 32
8th of 322.8Goals allowed2.914th of 32
5th of 32+0.7Margin0.015th of 32
1st of 3255.7%Shot share48.7%23rd of 32
23rd of 3289.5%Save percentage91.3%3rd of 32
18th of 324–6Last 104–618th of 32
15th of 327–8Road vs home7–923rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesRangers
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCARNYR
Puck line17–1511–21
Last 103–72–8
Favorite16–148–18
Underdog1–13–3
Overs–unders12–2014–18
Overs–unders, last 103–73–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 4–6 NYR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.