New York Rangers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Stars- Nils LundkvistAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:54Chris Kreider Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (13), Vincent Trocheck (11)3–1
- P115:20Vincent Trocheck Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (25), Artemi Panarin (22)2–1
- P110:44Reilly Smith Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:46Roope Hintz Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (3), Jason Robertson (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:46Roope Hintz Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (3), Jason Robertson (15)NYR 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 61% → 75% +13DAL 61% → 75%+13 pts
- P110:44Reilly Smith Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 1 DAL · NYR 25% → 39% +14NYR 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P115:20Vincent Trocheck Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (25), Artemi Panarin (22)NYR 2 – 1 DAL · NYR 40% → 57% +17NYR 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P317:54Chris Kreider Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (13), Vincent Trocheck (11)NYR 3 – 1 DAL · NYR 97% → >99% +3NYR 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML NYR +150 / DAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -161
- NYR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +73 Elo | DAL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 53.5%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 10th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 13–31st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–21 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 12–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.