Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Cam FowlerAssists2
- Cam FowlerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:45Colton Parayko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (3)4–7
- P315:10Robert Thomas Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (16), Cam Fowler (8)4–6
- P311:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (11), Filip Forsberg (21)4–5
- P215:29Philip Broberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P25:31Nick Blankenburg Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none3–4
- P118:05Cam Fowler Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (11)2–4
- P113:17Steven Stamkos Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (13), Ryan O'Reilly (13)2–3
- P19:57Jordan Kyrou Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (7), Dylan Holloway (10)1–3
- P15:42Mark Jankowski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (2), Michael McCarron (3)1–2
- P12:47Zack Bolduc Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (2), Justin Faulk (9)0–2
- P11:20Robert Thomas Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:17Steven Stamkos Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (13), Ryan O'Reilly (13)NSH 2 – 3 STL · NSH 25% → 39% +15NSH 25% → 39%+15 pts
- P118:05Cam Fowler Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (11)NSH 2 – 4 STL · STL 62% → 77% +15STL 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P25:31Nick Blankenburg Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneNSH 3 – 4 STL · NSH 20% → 36% +16NSH 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P215:29Philip Broberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 3 – 5 STL · STL 68% → 85% +17STL 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P311:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (11), Filip Forsberg (21)NSH 4 – 5 STL · NSH 3% → 19% +16NSH 3% → 19%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 57%
- ML NSH -145 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 44.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NSH -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 2.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +42 Elo | STL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 47.7%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323–14 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–19 | 21–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–23 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–0 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.