St. Louis Blues at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Oskar SundqvistGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists1
- Oskar SundqvistPoints1
Panthers- Uvis BalinskisGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Uvis BalinskisPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:43Aleksander Barkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (17), Sam Reinhart (23)1–2
- P210:58Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (22), Matthew Tkachuk (21)1–1
- P110:01Oskar Sundqvist Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Texier (3), Zack Bolduc (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:01Oskar Sundqvist Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Texier (3), Zack Bolduc (7)STL 1 – 0 FLA · STL 29% → 43% +15STL 29% → 43%+15 pts
- P210:58Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (22), Matthew Tkachuk (21)STL 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 46% → 67% +20FLA 46% → 67%+20 pts
- OT4:43Aleksander Barkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (17), Sam Reinhart (23)STL 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 52% → >99% +48FLA 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 73%
- ML STL +260 / FLA -320
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 69.5%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -274
- STL +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.0 – 3.5 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +4 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +143 Elo | FLA 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 73.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 53.3%5th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%25th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 14th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–15 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–1 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.