St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals3
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Dylan HollowayPoints3
Red WingsScoring summary
- P315:54Dylan Holloway Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (13), Robert Thomas (20)4–0
- P27:45Dylan Holloway Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (13), Colton Parayko (12)3–0
- P20:18Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (19), Pavel Buchnevich (14)2–0
- P116:14Dylan Holloway Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (6), Jordan Kyrou (15)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:14Dylan Holloway Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (6), Jordan Kyrou (15)STL 1 – 0 DET · STL 48% → 65% +17STL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P20:18Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (19), Pavel Buchnevich (14)STL 2 – 0 DET · STL 66% → 80% +15STL 66% → 80%+15 pts
- P27:45Dylan Holloway Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (13), Colton Parayko (12)STL 3 – 0 DET · STL 83% → 93% +10STL 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P315:54Dylan Holloway Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (13), Robert Thomas (20)STL 4 – 0 DET · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML STL +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- DET: Elo 56.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +42 Elo | DET 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 44.9%32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 19th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 7–1023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–15 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–21 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.