Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Jake EvansPoints2
Red Wings- Tyler MotteGoals1
- Michael RasmussenAssists2
- Michael RasmussenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:02Patrik Laine Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (22), Cole Caufield (13)4–3
- P38:42Arber Xhekaj Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (9), Emil Heineman (5)3–3
- P31:40Tyler Motte Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (6)2–3
- P119:27Joe Veleno Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (5), Michael Rasmussen (5)2–2
- P118:31Jake Evans Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P113:27Patrick Kane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (7), Alex DeBrincat (12)1–1
- P17:09Emil Heineman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (12), Mike Matheson (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:31Jake Evans Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 1 DET · MTL 43% → 60% +17MTL 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P119:27Joe Veleno Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (5), Michael Rasmussen (5)MTL 2 – 2 DET · DET 40% → 57% +18DET 40% → 57%+18 pts
- P31:40Tyler Motte Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (6)MTL 2 – 3 DET · DET 55% → 78% +23DET 55% → 78%+23 pts
- P38:42Arber Xhekaj Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (9), Emil Heineman (5)MTL 3 – 3 DET · MTL 17% → 46% +29MTL 17% → 46%+29 pts
- P312:02Patrik Laine Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (22), Cole Caufield (13)MTL 4 – 3 DET · MTL 47% → 82% +35MTL 47% → 82%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML MTL +135 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- DET: Elo 62.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -143
- MTL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +12 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +92 Elo | DET 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.1% | Shot share | 44.8%32nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 31st of 323–10 | Road vs home | 7–922nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–16 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 14–15 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.