Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Jonatan BerggrenAssists1
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints1
Canadiens- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P213:03Brendan Gallagher Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (7), David Savard (7)1–5
- P22:40Emil Heineman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (9)1–4
- P119:21Patrik Laine Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (24), Nick Suzuki (23)1–3
- P115:26Jake Evans Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (10), Alexandre Carrier (7)1–2
- P114:14Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (22), Lane Hutson (23)1–1
- P16:41Joe Veleno Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Jonatan Berggren (3), Moritz Seider (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:41Joe Veleno Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Jonatan Berggren (3), Moritz Seider (14)DET 1 – 0 MTL · DET 52% → 67% +15DET 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P114:14Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (22), Lane Hutson (23)DET 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 32% → 48% +16MTL 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P115:26Jake Evans Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (10), Alexandre Carrier (7)DET 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 48% → 65% +17MTL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P119:21Patrik Laine Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (24), Nick Suzuki (23)DET 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 65% → 80% +15MTL 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P22:40Emil Heineman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (9)DET 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 81% → 91% +10MTL 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / MTL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 50.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +6 Elo | DET 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.9% | Shot share | 45.4%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%30th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 23rd of 326–9 | Road vs home | 9–915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–13 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–2 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.