Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Avalanche- Joel KivirantaGoals3
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Joel KivirantaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:28Joel Kiviranta Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (6), Cale Makar (34)2–5
- P317:26Joel Kiviranta Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P212:01Joel Kiviranta Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (33), Cale Makar (33)2–3
- P24:12Valeri Nichushkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (43)2–2
- P24:01Kaapo Kakko Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (14)2–1
- P117:55Jared McCann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (9), Yanni Gourde (10)1–1
- P110:05Cale Makar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (32), Nathan MacKinnon (42)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:05Cale Makar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (32), Nathan MacKinnon (42)SEA 0 – 1 COL · COL 71% → 83% +12COL 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P117:55Jared McCann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (9), Yanni Gourde (10)SEA 1 – 1 COL · SEA 18% → 31% +13SEA 18% → 31%+13 pts
- P24:01Kaapo Kakko Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (14)SEA 2 – 1 COL · SEA 32% → 50% +18SEA 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P24:12Valeri Nichushkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (43)SEA 2 – 2 COL · COL 49% → 68% +18COL 49% → 68%+18 pts
- P212:01Joel Kiviranta Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (33), Cale Makar (33)SEA 2 – 3 COL · COL 66% → 83% +17COL 66% → 83%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 72%
- ML SEA +250 / COL -300
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- COL: Elo 66.8%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -263
- SEA +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 3.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −6 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +121 Elo | COL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 71.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 51.9%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%29th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 22nd of 327–10 | Road vs home | 8–816th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–17 | 12–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.