Seattle Kraken at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Ryker EvansGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Ryker EvansPoints1
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Connor MurphyAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:11Nolan Allan Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (8), Connor Murphy (12)1–3
- P311:26Ryker Evans Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (12), Brandon Montour (13)1–2
- P36:06Ilya Mikheyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (14), Tyler Bertuzzi (6)0–2
- P210:54Ilya Mikheyev Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (13)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:54Ilya Mikheyev Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (13)SEA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 45% → 66% +20CHI 45% → 66%+20 pts
- P36:06Ilya Mikheyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (14), Tyler Bertuzzi (6)SEA 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 75% → 92% +17CHI 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P311:26Ryker Evans Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (12), Brandon Montour (13)SEA 1 – 2 CHI · SEA 3% → 18% +15SEA 3% → 18%+15 pts
- P315:11Nolan Allan Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (8), Connor Murphy (12)SEA 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 89% → >99% +10CHI 89% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -145 / CHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −7 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +35 Elo | SEA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 46.2%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 17th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–15 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19 | 11–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.