Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals1
- Brett HowdenAssists1
- Keegan KolesarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:51Mark Stone Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (3)2–6
- P313:58Jaden Schwartz Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (8), Chandler Stephenson (20)2–5
- P311:28Noah Hanifin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (21), Tanner Pearson (7)1–5
- P38:09William Karlsson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Keegan Kolesar (5)1–4
- P117:48Nicolas Hague Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (20), Jack Eichel (35)1–3
- P113:50Brett Howden Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (34)1–2
- P112:39Keegan Kolesar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (3), Brayden McNabb (3)1–1
- P12:34Vince Dunn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (13), Chandler Stephenson (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:34Vince Dunn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (13), Chandler Stephenson (19)SEA 1 – 0 VGK · SEA 37% → 51% +15SEA 37% → 51%+15 pts
- P112:39Keegan Kolesar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (3), Brayden McNabb (3)SEA 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 46% → 62% +16VGK 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P113:50Brett Howden Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (34)SEA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 62% → 77% +14VGK 62% → 77%+14 pts
- P117:48Nicolas Hague Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (20), Jack Eichel (35)SEA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 77% → 88% +11VGK 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P38:09William Karlsson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Keegan Kolesar (5)SEA 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 96% → >99% +3VGK 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML SEA +165 / VGK -195
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -175
- SEA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −6 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +115 Elo | VGK 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 63.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 51.6%9th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 327–9 | Road vs home | 12–31st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–16 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–3 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.