Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Brock McGinnAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:41Nathan MacKinnon Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (31), Valeri Nichushkin (5)4–2
- P313:05Alex Killorn Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (4)3–2
- P33:30Cale Makar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (41), Mikko Rantanen (30)3–1
- P210:57Valeri Nichushkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (32), Nathan MacKinnon (40)2–1
- P26:40Parker Kelly Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (5)1–1
- P22:40Leo Carlsson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (7), Brock McGinn (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:40Leo Carlsson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (7), Brock McGinn (4)COL 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 38% → 57% +18ANA 38% → 57%+18 pts
- P26:40Parker Kelly Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (5)COL 1 – 1 ANA · COL 42% → 61% +19COL 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P210:57Valeri Nichushkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (32), Nathan MacKinnon (40)COL 2 – 1 ANA · COL 60% → 78% +18COL 60% → 78%+18 pts
- P33:30Cale Makar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (41), Mikko Rantanen (30)COL 3 – 1 ANA · COL 81% → 94% +13COL 81% → 94%+13 pts
- P313:05Alex Killorn Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (4)COL 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 1% → 11% +10ANA 1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 65%
- ML COL -210 / ANA +170
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- COL: Elo 57.6%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -183
- ANA +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −8 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +53 Elo | COL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 45.8%30th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%5th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 7th of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 6–1028th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–23 | 21–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 9–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–1 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.