Colorado Avalanche at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Utah HC- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Logan CooleyAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P318:10Mikko Rantanen Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (46)3–1
- P314:44Artturi Lehkonen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (6), Nathan MacKinnon (45)2–1
- P33:42Nick Schmaltz Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (19), Logan Cooley (23)1–1
- P211:52Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (44), Sam Malinski (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:52Artturi Lehkonen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (44), Sam Malinski (4)COL 1 – 0 UTAH · COL 54% → 74% +20COL 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P33:42Nick Schmaltz Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (19), Logan Cooley (23)COL 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 47% +25UTAH 22% → 47%+25 pts
- P314:44Artturi Lehkonen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (6), Nathan MacKinnon (45)COL 2 – 1 UTAH · COL 52% → 90% +38COL 52% → 90%+38 pts
- P318:10Mikko Rantanen Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (46)COL 3 – 1 UTAH · COL 98% → >99% +2COL 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 4 – 1 UTAH · COL 100% → 100% +0COL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 56%
- ML COL -140 / UTAH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- COL: Elo 48.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- UTAH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +10 Elo | UTAH 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 7th of 3212–7 | Road vs home | 5–1032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–23 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.