Anaheim Ducks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Robby FabbriGoals2
- Cutter GauthierAssists2
- Robby FabbriPoints2
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints4
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mason McTavish Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P315:15Brett Leason Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (10), Olen Zellweger (8)4–4
- P312:35Robby Fabbri Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Cutter Gauthier (9), Pavel Mintyukov (5)3–4
- P210:49Isac Lundestrom Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (7), Jansen Harkins (3)2–4
- P25:57Clayton Keller Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (18), Nick Schmaltz (21)1–4
- P22:39Logan Cooley Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (22), Mikhail Sergachev (17)1–3
- P116:09Barrett Hayton Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Olli Maatta (5), Clayton Keller (21)1–2
- P14:56Robby Fabbri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (10)1–1
- P11:26Clayton Keller Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Juuso Valimaki (2), Barrett Hayton (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:26Clayton Keller Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Juuso Valimaki (2), Barrett Hayton (9)ANA 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 65% → 78% +12UTAH 65% → 78%+12 pts
- P14:56Robby Fabbri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (10)ANA 1 – 1 UTAH · ANA 22% → 35% +13ANA 22% → 35%+13 pts
- P116:09Barrett Hayton Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Olli Maatta (5), Clayton Keller (21)ANA 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 63% → 78% +15UTAH 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P22:39Logan Cooley Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (22), Mikhail Sergachev (17)ANA 1 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 78% → 89% +11UTAH 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P315:15Brett Leason Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (10), Olen Zellweger (8)ANA 4 – 4 UTAH · ANA 8% → 45% +38ANA 8% → 45%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 66%
- ML ANA +180 / UTAH -215
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- UTAH: Elo 66.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -191
- ANA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.8 – 3.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +14 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · UTAH: Jaxson Stauber: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +121 Elo | UTAH 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 68.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 21st of 326–8 | Road vs home | 5–828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–10 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–22 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.