Dallas Stars at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints1
Utah HC- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- Ian ColeAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:39Barrett Hayton Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (22), Clayton Keller (23)3–2
- P217:50Jamie Benn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (14), Thomas Harley (11)3–1
- P212:39Roope Hintz Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (5), Jason Robertson (16)2–1
- P112:41Kevin Stenlund Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (8), Michael Carcone (5)1–1
- P111:02Colin Blackwell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (8), Sam Steel (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:02Colin Blackwell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (8), Sam Steel (10)DAL 1 – 0 UTAH · DAL 59% → 74% +15DAL 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P112:41Kevin Stenlund Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ian Cole (8), Michael Carcone (5)DAL 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 26% → 41% +15UTAH 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P212:39Roope Hintz Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (5), Jason Robertson (16)DAL 2 – 1 UTAH · DAL 57% → 76% +19DAL 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P217:50Jamie Benn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (14), Thomas Harley (11)DAL 3 – 1 UTAH · DAL 77% → 91% +14DAL 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P311:39Barrett Hayton Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (22), Clayton Keller (23)DAL 3 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 2% → 14% +12UTAH 2% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 60%
- ML DAL -165 / UTAH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -149
- UTAH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +7 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +14 Elo | DAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 19th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 5–929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–18 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.