Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Sam LaffertyAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:23Esa Lindell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (19), Casey DeSmith (1)2–4
- P311:32Wyatt Johnston Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (13)2–3
- P34:57Beck Malenstyn Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Sam Lafferty (2), Ryan McLeod (12)2–2
- P32:35Jason Robertson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P210:20Jason Zucker Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (12), Bowen Byram (17)1–1
- P29:49Roope Hintz Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (18), Thomas Harley (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:49Roope Hintz Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (18), Thomas Harley (12)BUF 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 61% → 79% +18DAL 61% → 79%+18 pts
- P210:20Jason Zucker Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (12), Bowen Byram (17)BUF 1 – 1 DAL · BUF 21% → 39% +18BUF 21% → 39%+18 pts
- P32:35Jason Robertson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 58% → 81% +23DAL 58% → 81%+23 pts
- P34:57Beck Malenstyn Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Sam Lafferty (2), Ryan McLeod (12)BUF 2 – 2 DAL · BUF 18% → 42% +25BUF 18% → 42%+25 pts
- P311:32Wyatt Johnston Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (13)BUF 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 56% → 87% +31DAL 56% → 87%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 65%
- ML BUF +175 / DAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -186
- BUF +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −12 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +91 Elo | DAL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 54.0%4th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 327–9 | Road vs home | 13–55th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–19 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 21–16 | 13–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.