Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints1
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:35Brock Faber Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Matt Boldy (18), Marco Rossi (17)3–2
- P311:33Marcus Foligno Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jared Spurgeon (9), Declan Chisholm (7)2–2
- P310:36Jonas Brodin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (13)1–2
- P215:08Wyatt Johnston Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (5), Ilya Lyubushkin (8)0–2
- P19:52Evgenii Dadonov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (15), Jamie Benn (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:52Evgenii Dadonov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (15), Jamie Benn (15)MIN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 64% → 77% +14DAL 64% → 77%+14 pts
- P215:08Wyatt Johnston Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (5), Ilya Lyubushkin (8)MIN 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 79% → 92% +12DAL 79% → 92%+12 pts
- P310:36Jonas Brodin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (13)MIN 1 – 2 DAL · MIN 2% → 14% +12MIN 2% → 14%+12 pts
- P311:33Marcus Foligno Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jared Spurgeon (9), Declan Chisholm (7)MIN 2 – 2 DAL · MIN 13% → 44% +31MIN 13% → 44%+31 pts
- OT0:35Brock Faber Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Matt Boldy (18), Marco Rossi (17)MIN 3 – 2 DAL · MIN 46% → 89% +43MIN 46% → 89%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 65%
- ML MIN +175 / DAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -186
- MIN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +66 Elo | DAL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 53.6%4th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3212–6 | Road vs home | 13–43rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–18 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 12–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–4 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.