Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints1
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Yakov TreninAssists2
- Yakov TreninPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Jason Dickinson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (7), Taylor Hall (11)3–4
- P318:36Marcus Foligno Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (3)2–4
- P32:43Brock Faber Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (8), Marat Khusnutdinov (3)2–3
- P27:05Jared Spurgeon Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Yakov Trenin (2), Devin Shore (1)2–2
- P26:16Nick Foligno Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (1), Ryan Donato (9)2–1
- P111:11Kirill Kaprizov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (16), Mats Zuccarello (12)1–1
- P16:47Connor Bedard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:47Connor Bedard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (10)CHI 1 – 0 MIN · CHI 35% → 50% +15CHI 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P111:11Kirill Kaprizov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (16), Mats Zuccarello (12)CHI 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 48% → 64% +16MIN 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P26:16Nick Foligno Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (1), Ryan Donato (9)CHI 2 – 1 MIN · CHI 38% → 57% +19CHI 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P27:05Jared Spurgeon Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Yakov Trenin (2), Devin Shore (1)CHI 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 42% → 62% +19MIN 42% → 62%+19 pts
- P32:43Brock Faber Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (8), Marat Khusnutdinov (3)CHI 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 59% → 81% +23MIN 59% → 81%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 66%
- ML CHI +180 / MIN -215
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -191
- CHI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.3 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +8 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +139 Elo | MIN 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 71.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–14 | Road vs home | 8–819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–17 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–22 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.