Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints3
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:37Mikael Backlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (9)4–6
- P318:52Ilya Mikheyev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (7), Teuvo Teravainen (16)4–5
- P311:30Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (21), Teuvo Teravainen (15)3–5
- P30:57Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (20), Taylor Hall (9)2–5
- P217:51Blake Coleman Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jake Bean (3), MacKenzie Weegar (14)1–5
- P212:40Matt Coronato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (12), Connor Zary (12)1–4
- P210:37Connor Zary Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (3), Yegor Sharangovich (3)1–3
- P210:09Connor Bedard Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (8), Tyler Bertuzzi (7)1–2
- P113:26Nazem Kadri Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P112:19Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (9), MacKenzie Weegar (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:19Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (9), MacKenzie Weegar (13)CHI 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 60% → 75% +15CGY 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P113:26Nazem Kadri Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 75% → 86% +11CGY 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P210:09Connor Bedard Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (8), Tyler Bertuzzi (7)CHI 1 – 2 CGY · CHI 11% → 24% +13CHI 11% → 24%+13 pts
- P210:37Connor Zary Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (3), Yegor Sharangovich (3)CHI 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 77% → 89% +13CGY 77% → 89%+13 pts
- P212:40Matt Coronato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (12), Connor Zary (12)CHI 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 90% → 97% +7CGY 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 61%
- ML CHI +150 / CGY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CGY: Elo 62.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CGY -159
- CHI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +9 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +87 Elo | CGY 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 28th of 325–13 | Road vs home | 11–79th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–16 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–22 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.