Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Jack QuinnAssists2
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Jake NeighboursAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:19Jiri Kulich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (3)4–2
- P310:30Jason Zucker Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (8), Tage Thompson (11)3–2
- P35:56Nathan Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (15), Alexey Toropchenko (5)2–2
- P115:47Brayden Schenn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (14), Jake Neighbours (8)2–1
- P113:06Tage Thompson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (15), Jack Quinn (7)2–0
- P16:52Peyton Krebs Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (16), Rasmus Dahlin (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:52Peyton Krebs Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (16), Rasmus Dahlin (20)BUF 1 – 0 STL · BUF 46% → 61% +15BUF 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P113:06Tage Thompson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (15), Jack Quinn (7)BUF 2 – 0 STL · BUF 62% → 77% +14BUF 62% → 77%+14 pts
- P115:47Brayden Schenn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (14), Jake Neighbours (8)BUF 2 – 1 STL · STL 22% → 37% +15STL 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P35:56Nathan Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (15), Alexey Toropchenko (5)BUF 2 – 2 STL · STL 24% → 52% +28STL 24% → 52%+28 pts
- P310:30Jason Zucker Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (8), Tage Thompson (11)BUF 3 – 2 STL · BUF 48% → 81% +33BUF 48% → 81%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML BUF +110 / STL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- STL: Elo 57.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- BUF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +54 Elo | STL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 47.8%26th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 23rd of 326–9 | Road vs home | 7–924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–19 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.