Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jiri KulichGoals2
- Jiri KulichAssists1
- Jiri KulichPoints3
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Isaiah GeorgeAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:49Jiri Kulich Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–1
- P310:07Tage Thompson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (17)6–1
- P219:05Kyle Palmieri Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Duclair (3), Isaiah George (4)5–1
- P218:21Jack Quinn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (10), JJ Peterka (15)5–0
- P215:45Zach Benson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (16), Jiri Kulich (2)4–0
- P26:53Jason Zucker Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (5), Rasmus Dahlin (15)3–0
- P116:49Jiri Kulich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (9), Rasmus Dahlin (14)2–0
- P12:07Beck Malenstyn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (3), Ryan McLeod (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:07Beck Malenstyn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (3), Ryan McLeod (10)BUF 1 – 0 NYI · BUF 40% → 55% +15BUF 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P116:49Jiri Kulich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (9), Rasmus Dahlin (14)BUF 2 – 0 NYI · BUF 59% → 74% +16BUF 59% → 74%+16 pts
- P26:53Jason Zucker Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (5), Rasmus Dahlin (15)BUF 3 – 0 NYI · BUF 79% → 90% +11BUF 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P215:45Zach Benson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (16), Jiri Kulich (2)BUF 4 – 0 NYI · BUF 94% → 98% +4BUF 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P218:21Jack Quinn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (10), JJ Peterka (15)BUF 5 – 0 NYI · BUF 99% → >99% +1BUF 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 60%
- ML BUF +140 / NYI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYI -149
- BUF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +40 Elo | NYI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–10 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 25th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 2–15 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.