Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Pat MaroonAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals3
- Jack QuinnAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:06Alex Tuch Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none2–6
- P35:48Alex Tuch Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (11), Sam Lafferty (1)2–5
- P33:06Seth Jones Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (8), Lukas Reichel (8)2–4
- P216:39Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (12), Connor Bedard (22)1–4
- P119:18Dylan Cozens Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (6)0–4
- P112:38Jack Quinn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (11), JJ Peterka (16)0–3
- P112:23Alex Tuch Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Tage Thompson (10), Rasmus Dahlin (19)0–2
- P19:51Zach Benson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (18), Bowen Byram (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:51Zach Benson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (18), Bowen Byram (15)CHI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 58% → 73% +15BUF 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P112:23Alex Tuch Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Tage Thompson (10), Rasmus Dahlin (19)CHI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 73% → 85% +12BUF 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P112:38Jack Quinn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (11), JJ Peterka (16)CHI 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 85% → 92% +8BUF 85% → 92%+8 pts
- P33:06Seth Jones Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (8), Lukas Reichel (8)CHI 2 – 4 BUF · CHI 1% → 7% +5CHI 1% → 7%+5 pts
- P35:48Alex Tuch Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (11), Sam Lafferty (1)CHI 2 – 5 BUF · BUF 95% → >99% +4BUF 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 59%
- ML CHI +135 / BUF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 61.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BUF -143
- CHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +84 Elo | BUF 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 29th of 325–15 | Road vs home | 6–1231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–17 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 13–22 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.