Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints3
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:55Matt Duchene Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (16), Miro Heiskanen (13)5–1
- P30:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Matt Duchene (19), Jamie Benn (17)4–1
- P214:46Evgenii Dadonov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (18), Jason Robertson (17)3–1
- P28:23Jason Robertson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (16), Miro Heiskanen (12)2–1
- P117:12Jamie Benn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (6), Logan Stankoven (14)1–1
- P112:20Connor Bedard Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (9), Teuvo Teravainen (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:20Connor Bedard Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (9), Teuvo Teravainen (17)DAL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 32% → 47% +16CHI 32% → 47%+16 pts
- P117:12Jamie Benn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (6), Logan Stankoven (14)DAL 1 – 1 CHI · DAL 51% → 67% +17DAL 51% → 67%+17 pts
- P28:23Jason Robertson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (16), Miro Heiskanen (12)DAL 2 – 1 CHI · DAL 65% → 81% +16DAL 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P214:46Evgenii Dadonov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (18), Jason Robertson (17)DAL 3 – 1 CHI · DAL 82% → 93% +11DAL 82% → 93%+11 pts
- P30:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Matt Duchene (19), Jamie Benn (17)DAL 4 – 1 CHI · DAL 94% → 99% +4DAL 94% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 70%
- ML DAL -275 / CHI +225
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.5%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -238
- CHI +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.4 – 2.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +104 Elo | DAL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 46.1%30th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 12th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–20 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 12–22 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–2 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.