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New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

FinalABC, ESPN+

Away

Rangers

17-20-1

4–7

at

Home

Capitals

26-10-3

NYR 40%WSH 60%

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Capital One Arena · ABC, ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored NYR favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3WSH50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
Capitals

Scoring summary

  • P319:22Tom Wilson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (11), Martin Fehervary (9)4–7
  • P314:00Aliaksei Protas Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (25), Jakob Chychrun (16)4–6
  • P313:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (11)4–5
  • P310:50Alex Ovechkin Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (32)3–5
  • P38:32Filip Chytil Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (2), Braden Schneider (8)3–4
  • P218:13Connor McMichael Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (31), Andrew Mangiapane (7)2–4
  • P216:26Sam Carrick Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (3)2–3
  • P210:08Andrew Mangiapane Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (5), Rasmus Sandin (13)1–3
  • P22:29Lars Eller Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Martin Fehervary (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (13)1–2
  • P118:46Dylan Strome Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (15), Tom Wilson (14)1–1
  • P17:00Chris Kreider Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:00Chris Kreider Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 0 WSH · NYR 41% → 56% +15
  2. P118:46Dylan Strome Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (15), Tom Wilson (14)NYR 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 41% → 58% +17
  3. P22:29Lars Eller Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Martin Fehervary (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (13)NYR 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 58% → 75% +17
  4. P216:26Sam Carrick Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (3)NYR 2 – 3 WSH · NYR 9% → 23% +14
  5. P218:13Connor McMichael Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (31), Andrew Mangiapane (7)NYR 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 78% → 91% +14

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 60%

LeanHit
NYR 40%WSH 60%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
WSH 60%
ML NYR +140 / WSH -165
Pre-line forecast
WSH 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH 59%
Ratings vs. market
−0.6 pts
WSH: Elo 59.3%, market 59.9%
Fair odds
WSH -149
NYR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 3.0 – 3.5 WSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRWSHWhy
Team rating15111535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3+9NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWSH +65 EloWSH 59.3%
Market-implied ratingsWSH 59.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWSH 59.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWSH 59.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatWSH
23rd of 322.8Goals scored3.62nd of 32
18th of 323.1Goals allowed2.65th of 32
20th of 32−0.3Margin+1.03rd of 32
22nd of 3248.7%Shot share50.6%12th of 32
8th of 3290.8%Save percentage90.9%6th of 32
27th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
15th of 329–10Road vs home12–78th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersCapitals
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYRWSH
Puck line11–2624–14
Last 101–95–5
Favorite8–199–9
Underdog3–715–5
Overs–unders16–2119–19
Overs–unders, last 103–73–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYR 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.