New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:12Nick Paul Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P30:13Vincent Trocheck Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (4)2–5
- P28:08Jake Guentzel Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (19), Nikita Kucherov (37)1–5
- P25:02Anthony Cirelli Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (24)1–4
- P23:35Brayden Point Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (36)1–3
- P118:11Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (18)1–2
- P19:23Artemi Panarin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (12), Adam Fox (26)1–1
- P12:27Nikita Kucherov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (18), Jake Guentzel (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:27Nikita Kucherov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (18), Jake Guentzel (17)NYR 0 – 1 TB · TB 60% → 73% +13TB 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P19:23Artemi Panarin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (12), Adam Fox (26)NYR 1 – 1 TB · NYR 27% → 41% +14NYR 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P118:11Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (18)NYR 1 – 2 TB · TB 58% → 74% +16TB 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P23:35Brayden Point Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (36)NYR 1 – 3 TB · TB 75% → 87% +12TB 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P25:02Anthony Cirelli Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (24)NYR 1 – 4 TB · TB 87% → 95% +7TB 87% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML NYR +140 / TB -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TB: Elo 61.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- NYR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +7 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +77 Elo | TB 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 50.1%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 12th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 10–69th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–23 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.