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Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN Sun

Away

Lightning

19-11-2

4–0

at

Home

Panthers

22-12-2

TB 42%FLA 58%

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Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN Sun

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored TB favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%TB

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Lightning
Panthers

    Scoring summary

    • P314:18Brandon Hagel Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (8)4–0
    • P116:24Mitchell Chaffee Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (17), Nick Paul (11)3–0
    • P19:20Jake Guentzel Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (23), Victor Hedman (24)2–0
    • P16:56Nikita Kucherov Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Victor Hedman (23), Anthony Cirelli (16)1–0

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P16:56Nikita Kucherov Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Victor Hedman (23), Anthony Cirelli (16)TB 1 – 0 FLA · TB 42% → 58% +15
    2. P19:20Jake Guentzel Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (23), Victor Hedman (24)TB 2 – 0 FLA · TB 58% → 73% +14
    3. P116:24Mitchell Chaffee Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (17), Nick Paul (11)TB 3 – 0 FLA · TB 75% → 87% +11
    4. P314:18Brandon Hagel Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (8)TB 4 – 0 FLA · TB >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Panthers 58%

    LeanMiss
    TB 42%FLA 58%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    FLA 58%
    ML TB +130 / FLA -150
    Pre-line forecast
    FLA 63%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    FLA 62%
    Ratings vs. market
    +3.7 pts
    FLA: Elo 61.7%, market 58.0%
    Fair odds
    FLA -138
    TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    TB 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorTBFLAWhy
    Team rating15421568Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest−30−30FLA and TB on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies−15+7TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsFLA +83 EloFLA 61.7%
    Market-implied ratingsFLA 62.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastFLA 62.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastFLA 58.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
    TBStatFLA
    1st of 323.9Goals scored3.64th of 32
    12th of 322.9Goals allowed3.116th of 32
    3rd of 32+1.0Margin+0.58th of 32
    13th of 3250.3%Shot share53.3%5th of 32
    11th of 3290.4%Save percentage89.4%24th of 32
    4th of 327–3Last 107–34th of 32
    10th of 328–7Road vs home9–610th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    LightningPanthers
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonTBFLA
    Puck line16–1518–17
    Last 108–25–5
    Favorite11–912–16
    Underdog5–66–1
    Overs–unders14–1720–15
    Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    TB 2–7 FLA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.